Editor’s note: Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author of “Jimmy Carter” (Times Books) and author of the book “Governing America” (Princeton University Press).
Princeton, New Jersey (CNN) — The outcome of the election of 2012 is becoming even tougher to predict, since there are many political landmines facing both parties.
President Barack Obama has enjoyed a resurgence in his political standing, with polls showing him ahead of the GOP rivals in hypothetical matchups for the general election. Recent statistics showing an improving economy have bolstered the president’s position, while his budget proposal and increasingly populist rhetoric have generated some excitement within the base of the Democratic Party.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney remains the front-runner, though barely, still enjoying the kind of edge in campaign contributions that is essential to victory.
Yet both candidates, and both parties, are confronting threats that could cause huge swings in the outcome of the election.
The Democratic challenges come from outside the party.
How Santorum lead could change race
Paul: Santorum is a pretend conservative
Romney: We’re at a point of no return
Gingrich: I’ll be the front-runner again
For Obama, the biggest threat is Europe. Even though leaders have put bailout plans in place and nations have started to grapple with their budget problems, the governments of Greece, Italy and other nations remain fiscally unstable. If any of these countries should default, they could trigger the kind of financial chaos in world markets that could doom Obama’s re-election bid.
The problem for the White House is that there are limits to what the U.S. can do other than watch as European governments struggle to resolve this collective problem.
Another lurking problem is Iran. As tensions keep escalating with the Iranian government, and between the Israelis and Iranians, the potential for an international crisis is clear. If the situation deteriorates, the politics could move in ether direction. On the one hand, there could be a rally-around-the-leader effect, bolstering the case for keeping Obama in office. Or it could open the president up to attack from the right if his handling of the crisis is questionable.
The administration must also wait to see what the Supreme Court decides on the president’s health care plan. The court is expected to decide by early summer on the constitutionality of mandating that people must have health insurance. If it decides that the individual mandate is constitutional, the decision would greatly strengthen the president’s political position.
But if the Supreme Court says this key portion of the plan is unconstitutional, the decision would lend support to Republicans who have criticized the president for expanding the role of government. Even if a negative decision energized the base of the
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